One common comparison that is often brought up when discussing the future of AI and the workplace is the Industrial Revolution. In the Industrial Revolution and its impact on the agricultural industry. Prior to the Industrial Revolution (1790), close to 90% of the US population worked in agriculture. As machinery and factories took hold, that number quickly dwindled. By 1990, the US agriculture industry represented 45%. By 2018, it was 28%. That number continues to fall today thanks to trade, technology, and corporatization.
During the first one hundred years, families moved into towns and cities to take factory jobs. These jobs offered stability and higher rates of pay, rewarding the majority of those who made the transition. The transition wasn’t always easy from the fields to the assembly line, but most with the ability to perform manual labor and could tolerate repetitive tasks were able to find work and earn paychecks.
This brief overview is not aimed at reducing the hardships some endured. Those who did not make the adjustment faced high unemployment and poverty rates. Trades that women and children traditionally participated in were impacted heavily as well, potentially costing a household multiple income streams to simultaneously dry up. What can’t be understated is the growth of the industrial sector. Between 1870 and 1910, the number of people involved in industrial labor in the U.S. soared, from 3.5 million to 14.2 million, and by the end of the coming wars, it would grow further as women had been trained in factories and men returned home, accompanied by an explosion of demand for consumer goods. Not all without the pains of transition and some turmoil, but the transition from a primarily agricultural society to an industrial one took about 150 years.
150 years is roughly three full career cycles. That gave time to adoption that seemed fast at the time, but slow enough that people could maintain similar work for the majority of their lives. Technology was implemented, but it took decades to make major improvements. Machines reduced the amount of work needed, but the profit the industries were able to make drove citizens to be able to purchase more and continue to grow the consumer economy.
The Current Situation with the AI Revolution
Today, I am not sure anyone can say with assurance the direction their career, industry, or economy will be heading in the next 5 years, much less 50. The rate of technological growth is outpacing any one company’s ability to fully test and vet it, but less that country’s governing body to regulate it. Our system is driven by investments, funnelling more money to companies to build faster, and governments to stay out of the way. As someone on the ground with access to only the internet’s news reports, it is a bit like watching rival gods fighting for total control of the world. Not its people, but its potential. The gods no longer have a need to enslave humans or extract their resources; they now have computers for those tasks. The only human offerings needed are living online, feeding the algorithms, and buying a few products that are not even tangible.
The waves of layoffs have started. The time to find employment has been extended. The market value for labor and expertise is resetting. All this has the promise of the exponential growth of AI wrapped up inseparably in it. Work is rapidly losing its value. Experience is becoming obsolete, and knowledge is losing the ability to be transferred. Replacement for most is predicted to take less than ten years.
Speed is not the only factor in this that makes this revolution different from the industrial revolution, more than two hundred years ago. It is the complexity. Our systems are complicated, vast, and largely intertwined. Few people, if anyone, actually knows all the moving parts in a single large organization, much less an entire industry or economy. Our entire economy is made up of millions of tiny cogs that seem inefficient or useless, but were put there to act as failsafes during times when failure meant something. Times long before the “move fast and break things” mentality fully grasped our ethos. Preventing failure was seen as valuable in a time when things moved more slowly, and accountability carried more weight. These tiny cogs were bridges between functions that required understanding of why things were done and not just what had to be done. They may not have been the most useful or impactful part of the process most days, but when needed, they were invaluable. The knowledge and respect of such complexities are lost in the digital age. We are already seeing its loss cost lives in many sectors.
Airlines are an area where we are quickly seeing how corruption, quality reduction, and failed technology are quickly making our world a bit less safe. According to ACRO and Bureau of Aircraft Accident Archives data on the number of crash incidents from 2016 to 2023, we could expect about 100 incidents per year. In 2024, the number of crash incidents was 30, and by February of 2025, the number of incidents had already hit 90. With advancements in technology, I don’t know about you, but I would expect those numbers to continue on a downward trajectory if the technology were any good. The fact is that at that time, there were manufacturing scandals, restructuring of the FAA, and massive software failures that show no signs of stopping. The people who could once do all the tasks manually, through their experience and protocols, appear to have been forced out or replaced in the name of cost-cutting and efficiency. Jobs like air traffic controllers, one of the most stressful jobs in the world, just got much harder.
Regardless of your stance on the recent events and practices, moving from a job in truck driving or store clerk to air traffic controller is going to have a much harder learning curve than going from working a plow to working a press. The education, training, and experience needed to make that transition can take years, not weeks. Moreover, these jobs require a psychological fit. Not just anyone can make a transition from a non-regulated job to a regulated one, from low stress to high stress, and especially one that could mean life or death. The world of today is not the world of the 1800s.
Lastly, there is a people problem. Not numbers, but caliber. We simply do not have as resilient a population as we did in the 1800s. The number of people in the US who possess the acumen to responsibly manage their own finances is less than 50%, given that number follows the statistic of the number of households that could afford a $1,000 emergency. While spending remains at all time highs. 28% of Americans have some form of disability, and 22% experience some sort of mental illness each year. These statistics aren’t to shame anyone, but it does paint a picture of a society that is likely not as ready to rise to the occasion of major upheavals. These are people who need support and stability, likely stemming from the environment that we have created. I do not believe the population, as a whole, is prepared to see their fellow citizens sink lower down the ladder when it comes to well-being.
So what should we expect in the near future?
Unfortunately, our course seems chartered for the short term. Displacement seems inevitable. There is no sign that our so-called leaders on any side are prepared to legislate for the entire population. Greed at the expense of human life and well-being will likely continue. AI and poorly implemented technology will be haphazardly integrated, causing more disruption and a degrading experience.
If I had to make a prediction, things will continue to go like this until the wrong thing breaks. Maybe it will be record-high unemployment or bankruptcies. Maybe it will be record low markets or spending. I don’t know what that thing will be, or when it will happen, but the wrong thing will break, and it will trigger a backlash. The backlash will be what unites us in opposition to the way things are working and not working for the people. At that time, all the efforts that were spent racing towards the singularity will screech to a halt. We will stop and assess; relief will be given. It will have to, because we do not have the ability as a civilization to reinvent ourselves before we become destitute.
I believe humanity will make a resurgence in business, economics, art, and culture. Good, genuine humanity will be something of value again, and known morals will re-enter the cultural sphere. Only then can we progress to a future worth working towards.
What should we do as individuals?
We have to double down on our humanity. Many of us have been complicit in making ourselves obsolete. Whether that is primarily using online shopping, only using self-checkouts, not opting to talk to a real person, or falling prey to the algorithms, we have to do more to preserve our businesses and our usefulness as human beings. Sometimes that means going into the office, even though you can argue it is silly. Maybe it’s paying 20% more by buying from a vendor that isn’t a nationwide conglomerate. Sometimes, it is just buying less. Maybe it means going into a location instead of phoning in. The hard truth is that if we don’t take value in protecting the jobs of others, then ours will not be protected.
Business is about the exchange of goods or services between people. The more of that we can keep between people, the better for us all. The more that we can keep that meaningful, the more sustainable it is. Find the thing that you can do that cannot be replaced. Maybe it is genuinely caring about your customers, or maybe it is quality that requires a human touch. Whatever it is, lean into it. There are still places looking for that skill. Get in while you can.
Furthermore, prices are rising, and I would be lying if I said that I thought they were going back down. We had a good run at mass consumption, but that seems to be coming to an end. Now is the time to start to wean ourselves away from a maximalist mindset and start to move towards the essential and the frugal. Save for the rainy days if you can, because we can see the storm brewing.
Take time to get your relationships in order. As we have drifted farther apart, we have forgotten how to depend on others and be dependable. This is in work and personal lives. This means setting aside differences and focusing on the things that we have in common. The greatest act of rebellion against machines is humanity.
So will this be like the industrial revolution all over again? No. This will be different. Thinking of these things as similar will prevent you from responding properly. If there are lessons to be learned, though, it would be to remain flexible. We are all going to have to swallow some pride and tighten our belts soon, just don’t let it surprise you. The machines we are against now are not powered by steam and controlled by men. The machines we are against manage their own power and are smarter than us. We don’t know what they will want, but we have to do everything in our power to remain of use to each other.